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China's Abolition of One Child Policy: Will it Correct the Demographic Imbalance?
EXCERPTS
IMPACT OF ONE CHILD POLICY
The One Child Policy was officially in place from the year 1978 till 2015. Some researchers pointed out that the policy had really helped in controlling the population and in maintaining the growth rates fairly well. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, 400 million births were prevented when the policy was in force. According to the census of 2010, the average annual growth rate of population was 0.57 percent, which was lower than the 1.48 percent average growth rate in 1982-1990. In order to control the population growth rate, the government had invested around $696 million each year in birth control schemes. According to the Chinese Ministry of Health, “There were over 350 million abortions and 196 million sterilizations since 1979”... |
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THE NEXT MOVE: RELAXATION POLICY
In 2013, China’s fertility rate of 1.6 was still below the replacement rate. The ratio of taxpayers to pensioners was expected to drop from almost 5:1 to 2:1 by 2030. The UN figures also estimated that China’s population aged 65 and above would almost triple from 9% in 2010 (or 114 million) to 24% (331 million) by 2050 (Refer to Exhibit 4). The working population aged 20-34 was projected to fall from 25% (333 million) of the population in 2010 to 16% (228 million) by 2050...
ABOLITION OF ONE CHILD POLICY
The relaxation policy of 2013 was limited in its nature and produced disappointing results. The problems of an unbalanced population (i.e. male-female ratio), increased old age dependency ratio, and labor shortage remained prominent...
EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1: Fertility Rate
Exhibit 2: Sex Ratio
Exhibit 3: Elderly Population
Exhibit 4: Projected Old Age Population by 2050
